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Example theses

Priors that update themselves.

Real theses from the desk as of 2026-10-23. Open one to see its probability path, pillars, kill facts and every evidence update with its source.

Long2028-04-122%

TSMC 2027 Revenue Growth to Meet or Exceed 37% on N2P AI and AMD Ramp

2% when written → 2% now · 9 updates · 16 cited claims

72%AMD executes substantial AI processor capacity expansion via TSMC in 2027 as demand outstrips supply

Kill factConsensus 2027 revenue growth forecast drops materially as AI demand signals weaken

Long2027-10-0936%

Google Cloud AI Scaling to $60B+ ARR Run-Rate

35% when written → 36% now (+1 pts) · 8 updates · 27 cited claims

72%Google Cloud maintains or grows its 80% AI product adoption rate and 90% Fortune 100 Gemini usage

Kill factGoogle Cloud AI product adoption stalls or declines

Long2028-01-1315%

Nebius Likely to Hit $3.5B ARR by End-2027 on Pricing and Read-Across Demand

24% when written → 15% now (-9 pts) · 6 updates · 18 cited claims

62%Short-term AI compute pricing holds above $40B per GW annually through 2027

Kill factNebius quarterly revenue run-rate fails to approach levels consistent with $3.5B ARR by late 2027

Short2028-04-1443%

Broadcom Semiconductor Growth Moderates Below 80% YoY by 2027 Despite AI Tailwinds

43% when written → 43% now · 0 updates · 19 cited claims

70%AI platforms and inference market growth, while robust, remains below the rate needed for Broadcom to compound at 80%+ through 2027

Kill factBroadcom reports semiconductor revenue growth exceeding 80% in any quarter through 2027

Short2027-10-1650%

OpenAI ARR Unlikely to Hit $100B Within 12 Months

50% when written → 50% now · 0 updates · 15 cited claims

70%Microsoft 20% revenue share and Azure supply dynamics continue to cap OpenAI's effective scaling speed

Kill factOpenAI publicly or via leaks reports annualized revenue run-rate above $75B by end of 2026 Q4

Neutral2028-04-132%

Oracle Cloud Infra to Fall Short of 35% Sustained Growth

2% when written → 2% now · 10 updates · 17 cited claims

70%Recent GPU rental price increases and elevated capex intensity fail to drive sequential revenue momentum above low-single-digit levels

Kill factOracle reports cloud infrastructure or total revenue growth at or above 35% YoY in upcoming quarters

How they are built and updated: Living theses → · Not investment advice.